@PhDThesis{Alonso:2011:PrTeQu,
author = "Alonso, Marcelo F{\'e}lix",
title = "Previs{\~a}o de tempo qu{\'{\i}}mico para a Am{\'e}rica do
Sul:impacto das emiss{\~o}es urbanas nas escalas local e
regional",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais",
year = "2011",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2011-06-30",
keywords = "megacidades, qu{\'{\i}}mica da atmosfera, qualidade do ar,
CCATT-BRAMS. megacities, atmospheric chemistry, air quality,
CCATT-BRAMS.",
abstract = "As m{\'e}dias e grandes cidades sul-americanas experimentaram nos
{\'u}ltimos anos um constante crescimento demogr{\'a}fico,
devido a aspectos socioecon{\^o}micos como a
periurbaniza{\c{c}}{\~a}o e o {\^e}xodo rural. O aumento das
emiss{\~o}es de gases tra{\c{c}}o t{\'o}xicos para a
troposfera, devido {\`a} expans{\~a}o urbana, e o consequente
aumento da concentra{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos gases secund{\'a}rios
oriundos de sua oxida{\c{c}}{\~a}o afetam a qualidade de vida
nas cidades e no entorno. Os seus efeitos locais e seu impacto em
{\'a}reas remotas t{\^e}m sido objetos recentes de estudos
observacionais e de modelagem num{\'e}rica. Particularmente sobre
a influ{\^e}ncia regional, salienta-se que o continente
sul-americano carece de trabalhos com esse escopo. Portanto,
prop{\~o}e-se estudar o impacto regional das emiss{\~o}es
urbanas na qualidade do ar e na previs{\~a}o do tempo
qu{\'{\i}}mico sobre a Am{\'e}rica do Sul, atrav{\'e}s da
utiliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o do modelo CCATT-BRAMS (Coupled Chemistry
Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments
on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), j{\'a} operacional
para a Am{\'e}rica do Sul e com um extenso desenvolvimento
regional. Com esse intuito trabalhou-se no desenvolvimento de um
invent{\'a}rio regional de emiss{\~o}es veiculares em {\'a}reas
urbanas da Am{\'e}rica do Sul, mediante a an{\'a}lise e
agrega{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos invent{\'a}rios municipais
dispon{\'{\i}}veis, o estudo da sua
operacionaliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o em resolu{\c{c}}{\~o}es mais finas
e a constru{\c{c}}{\~a}o de cen{\'a}rios de emiss{\~a}o, a
partir dessa base regional, para futuros estudos de
rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o entre a qualidade do ar regional e as
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas. O invent{\'a}rio regional de
emiss{\~o}es urbanas para a Am{\'e}rica do Sul propiciou um
ganho significativo na modelagem da qu{\'{\i}}mica
atmosf{\'e}rica em escala regional sobre esse continente, e
mostrou-se virtualmente aplic{\'a}vel em todas as
resolu{\c{c}}{\~o}es, o que tamb{\'e}m inclui o seu refinamento
com a inser{\c{c}}{\~a}o das emiss{\~o}es veiculares das
rodovias e a distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o mais realista das
emiss{\~o}es na Regi{\~a}o Metropolitana de S{\~a}o Paulo,
proporcionando um ganho significativo na previs{\~a}o do tempo
qu{\'{\i}}mico em resolu{\c{c}}{\~o}es mais finas. Com a
utiliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o dessa ferramenta e extensivo trabalho no
modelo CCATT-BRAMS, mostrou-se que as grandes cidades
sulamericanas influenciam consideravelmente a produ{\c{c}}{\~a}o
de oz{\^o}nio no seu entorno, com regimes qu{\'{\i}}micos
distintos dependendo da latitude. Por fim, trabalhou-se na
gera{\c{c}}{\~a}o de invent{\'a}rios regionais futuros de
emiss{\~a}o dos precursores do oz{\^o}nio para o
per{\'{\i}}odo de 2011 a 2030. Os cen{\'a}rios estimados
apontam uma redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o da emiss{\~a}o de mon{\'o}xido
de carbono e compostos org{\^a}nicos vol{\'a}teis n{\~a}o
metano em torno de 37% em 2030 com rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a}s
emiss{\~o}es urbanas atuais, por{\'e}m, um aumento de 7% na
emiss{\~a}o de NOX comparando o mesmo per{\'{\i}}odo, sugerindo
que os atuais programas nacionais de controle da emiss{\~a}o de
{\'o}xidos de nitrog{\^e}nio, provindos principalmente de
ve{\'{\i}}culos pesados a diesel, n{\~a}o ser{\~a}o
suficientes para sua redu{\c{c}}{\~a}o daqui a 19 anos.
ABSTRACT: The larger cities in South American have a significant
urban population growth due mainly to socioeconomic factors such
as urban expansion and loss of agricultural land. The increase of
toxic trace gases emissions to the atmosphere, due to urban
expansion and their oxidation products affect the quality of life
in the cities and the surrounding areas. The local air quality
effects of urban emissions and the regional impacts of extensive
urban areas have been the subjects of observational and modeling
studies. However, there are only a few studies about the South
American cities regional influence in the atmospheric chemical
composition.Therefore, it was proposed to study the regional
impact of urban emissions on air quality and chemical weather
forecast over South America using the CCATT-BRAMS (Coupled
Chemistry Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian
developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System),
operational for South America and with a comprehensive regional
development. For this purpose, we worked on the development of an
urban vehicle emissions inventory for South America, based on the
analysis and aggregation of available inventories for the major
cities, with emphasis on its application in regional atmospheric
chemistry modeling, its applicability at various resolutions and
the construction of future emission scenarios aiming of establish
a relationship between regional air quality and climate change.
The use of local emissions databases integrating specific
information about urban centers into a broader database is shown
to be relevant for a good representation of emissions in chemical
weather forecasting models on local and regional scales. The
applicability of this methodology in a broad range resolution,
including the refinement with the inclusion of vehicular highways
emissions and a more realistic distribution of emissions in the
Metropolitan Area of S{\~a}o Paulo, provides a significant gain
in chemical weather forecasts in finer resolutions. Using this
tool and with extensive work on CCATT-BRAMS model, we showed that
the larger South American cities has a significant influence on
the ozone production in the surrounding area, and has distinct
chemical regimes depending on their latitude location. Finally, we
worked on the generation of urban emission inventories scenarios
for ozone precursors in the period 2011-2030. The scenarios show a
significant reduction of carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile
organic emissions (around 37%) in 2030 relative to 2010, however,
we estimated a increasing of 7% for the NOX vehicular emission
comparing the same period, suggesting that the current national
programs for emission control, will not be enough to reduce the
NOX emission and ozone production in the next 19 years.",
committee = "Moraes, Osvaldo Luiz Leal de (presidente) and Freitas, Karla Maria
Longo de (orientador) and Ferreira, Nelson Jesuz (orientador) and
Alval{\'a}, Pl{\'{\i}}nio Carlos and Dawidowski, Laura Elena
and Carvalho, Jonas Costa",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Chemical weather forecast for South America: impact of urban
emissions on local and regional scales",
language = "pt",
pages = "216",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP8W/39R4K92",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP8W/39R4K92",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "08 maio 2024"
}